Kiel Institute of World Economics
نویسنده
چکیده
This paper reviews the usefulness of monetary conditions in the euro area as leading indicators for aggregate demand conditions. Monetary conditions are measured with the MCI concept proposed by the Bank of Canada, and with the yield spread. A central result is that causality runs in both ways between monetary and aggregate demand conditions. The endogeneity of monetary conditions raises important implications for its role as a predictor of aggregate demand. It is shown that the information content of monetary conditions depends on the source of business cycle fluctuations and on the response of the central bank to those fluctuations.
منابع مشابه
The Evolution of the Theory of Monetary Integration
This paper is to be presented at the Symposium The Economics of Regional Monetary Integration, organized by the Fraser Institute an the Kiel Institute of the World Economy, to be held at the Kiel Institute, September 24-26, 2006. The paper draws heavily on the analysis found in my study: “The Economics of Monetary Unions: Traditional and New”, Chapter 4 in Regional Economic Integration, a book ...
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